2023 NFL mock draft 1.0

Trenton Corn gives us his very first mock draft for the 2023 NFL draft!

Welcome to my mock draft 1.0 for the 2023 NFL draft! Well over two months into the college football & NFL seasons, I’ve learned enough about NFL teams needs and have a solid beginning understanding on some of college football’s top draft prospects to be able to give you guys this mock draft.

The draft order I’m using will be structured a bit differently than any other mocks out there currently, which are based on teams current records. I’m using ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), which has simulated the remainder of the season 10,000 times. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games, and the order is based on each team's average draft position in the simulations.

At the end of the day, this draft order won’t be the exact order come draft night, but neither will other mock drafts projections as well. In fact, I’d argue that this mock could be more realistic.

Without any further ado, let’s get to the mock!

1. Texans (QB, Bryce Young)

Houston gave Davis Mills a fair shot at being their franchise guy, but if the team is in position, they’d be silly to pass up on Bryce Young to be their franchise Quarterback. This season Bryce Young didn’t have a Jerry Jeudy, DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle or Jameson Williams to throw to and really impressed me with how he was able extend plays and make things work when things wasn’t perfect.

2. Panthers (QB, Will Levis)

Outside of drinking his coffee with mayonnaise and eating bananas with the peel, Levis is still one of the most controversial and confusing prospects in this years class. He has all the intangibles you could ask for at the position, but hasn’t had the season that many had hoped. However, NFL scouts LOVE him and are all in agreement that he is more banged up this season than what many people think and that he will be a much better professional Quarterback than college. Don’t be shocked to see him being drafted as one of the top two QB’s in this years class.

3. Seahawks (Broncos) (EDGE, Will Anderson)

With Geno Smith finding success this season, the Seahawks have announced that they plan on bringing him back next season. With the team not focused at the QB position, they need to address their front seven and wind up selecting arguably the drafts best overall prospect in this years class in Will Anderson.

4. Bears (LT, Olu Fashanu)

Meet a kid who I think will be one of the biggest draft risers during the pre draft process. Olu Fashanu is receiving NFL Draft comparisons to Tyron Smith, due to his exciting frame and draft age. A daily volunteer at a homeless shelter, I think NFL scouts are going to fall in love with the kid. Chicago needs to find a Left Tackle in this years draft to protect Justin Fields moving forward.

5. Steelers (LT, Broderick Jones)

After selecting what they hope to be their franchise quarterback in last year’s draft, Pittsburgh needs to select a franchise Left Tackle with this years first round selection to protect Kenny Pickett. Broderick Jones is one of the favorites to be the top offensive lineman selected in this years class with very exciting athletic traits to work with.

6. Raiders (EDGE, Myles Murphy)

With virtually zero production from Chandler Jones this season, Las Vegas still could use added pass rush help opposite of Maxx Crosby, especially with Clelin Ferrell hitting the open market this offseason. At an explosive 6’5” 275 pounds, Myles Murphy reminds me a lot of Travon Walker, last years first overall pick.

7. Lions (QB, Anthony Richardson)

I understand Jared Goff has the Lions operating as one of the leagues best offenses this season, but it’s obvious he isn’t Detroit’s franchise guy. Anthony Richardson has a mouth watering physique that scouts will kill to see, but is very raw when it comes to passing the football. However, like Trey Lance in 2021, his physical traits will be hard to pass up on in the early first round. He will be allowed to sit for a year or two under Goff until he’s ready to go.

8. Eagles (Saints) (DT, Jalen Carter)

Philadelphia has to address their interior of their defensive line with Javon Hargrave and  Fletcher Cox both slated to be free agents this offseason. Jalen Carer would reunite with former Georgia teammate Jordan Davis, as they look to replicate what they did at Georgia together at the next level.

9. Lions (Rams) (DT, Bryan Bresee)

With their Quarterback of future selected, Detroit HAS to do something with their horrid rush defense. That’s where former number one overall recruit in the 2020 recruiting class steps in. Bryan Bresee has had to battle an ACL injury and the loss of his sister in his collegiate career, but has an impressive frame that will immediately impact the Lions defensive front and has an awe inspiring story that will make NFL GM’s want him to be apart of their team’s culture.

10. Jaguars (CB, Cam Smith)

After the trade deadline acquisition of Calvin Ridley, Wideout quickly moved down Jacksonville’s list of needs. Now, Cornerback sits atop the list, as the team needs a running mate alongside Tyson Campbell. Cam Smith isn’t as physically imposing as some of the other corners I will name in this mock, but he has a true alpha CB1 technique and attitude with a willingness to come down and make tackles as well.

11. Texans (Browns) (WR, Jaxson Smith-Njigba)

Similar to Ja’Marr Chase in 2021, Jaxson Smith Njigba becomes the WR1 in his draft class with virtually ZERO tape in his final collegiate season. Unlike Chase however, it’s due to a nagging hamstring injury, instead of opting out. He produced 95 receptions for 1,606 yards and 9 touchdowns for the Buckeyes in 2021, including a rose bowl record shattering 15 receptions for 347 yards and three touchdowns. He will man the slot for Bryce Young at the next level, with the Texans having Brandin Cooks and John Metchie iii running on the perimeter.

12. Falcons (CB, Kelee Ringo)

Atlanta has found something good in AJ Terrell, but needs a running mate opposite of him in the worst of ways, as the Falcons currently have given up the most yards passing this season. Kelee Ringo is a physical specimen, but has shown some inconsistent play on tape that’s opened the door for others to be considered CB1.

13. Cardinals (EDGE, Tyree Wilson)

Cornerback is an option, but with Smith and Ringo gone, they’ll select their Chandler Jones replacement in Tyree Wilson. Wilson is an exciting physical freak at 6’6” 270 pounds with 35 & 5/8-inch arms. Will Anderson and himself are the only players with 50 plus QB pressures this season.

14. Colts (QB, CJ Stroud)

Don’t be surprised when CJ Stroud isn’t one of the top two QB’s selected in this years draft, especially since there’s people out there questioning just how effective he is when things break down and go off script. His mobility and ability to extend and create plays is far worse than Young, Levis and Richardson before him. However, he will still be a first round QB, and lands with a QB needy team who’s cycled through Phillip Rivers, Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan in recent years and found very little success.

15. Packers (TE, Michael Mayer)

Arguably the safest first round prospect in this years class, Green Bay will select Michael Mayer to help Aaron Rodgers and this offense. One could’ve argued that the team needed to still invest in a WR during the draft, but Christian Watson has really came out strong here lately, along with Romeo Doubs having his moments earlier in the season. The trio of Watson, Doubs and Mayer looks to be a solid young nucleus for the Packers to have success with Aaron Rodgers in the present and potentially Jordan Love in the future.

16. Patriots (WR, Quentin Johnston)

New England still doesn’t exactly know what they have in 2021 first round pick, Mac Jones. Jakobi Meyers has been reliable in the slot, but the Patriots patch work job of Devante Parker, Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne hasn’t been very reliable on the outside whatsoever. At 6’4” 215 pounds, TCU’s Johnston looks to be a prototypical WR1 on the outside for an NFL team and should help Jones out moving forward.

17. Commanders (OL, Peter Skoronski)

A Quarterback isn’t out of the question, but it looks as if the team is content with Taylor Heinicke with his and the teams recent success, winning five of the teams last six games after a rough start. However, no matter who the QB is next season, they have to be protected much better. Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski will drop in this years draft due to not having an appropriate frame and wingspan to play the Left Tackle position according to scouts, although that hasn’t stopped former Northwestern standout Rashawn Slater so far in his NFL career. No matter if he becomes the teams starting Left Tackle or Left Guard, Skoronski is a solid value here.

18. Chargers (RT, Anton Harrison)

Speaking of Rashawn Slater, the Chargers needs help opposite of him along the offensive line. Anton Harrison and his exciting frame has played himself into first round consideration at the position and has shown to have versatility to play on the right side in college.

19. Seahawks (WR, Jalin Hyatt)

If Seattle is going to roll with Geno Smith at QB, then they need to make sure to surround him with enough weapons to succeed. Hyatt has registered 64 receptions for 1,181 yards and 15 touchdowns this season, as he’s proved to be the best deep threat in college football.

20. Titans (TE, Darnell Washington)

Darnell Washington doesn’t have much hype right now, but just wait until the combine. The reliability of Mayer and the athleticism of Washington reminds me a lot of TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant in the 2019 draft class that saw Hockenson go 8th overall and Fant go 20th overall. With Tight Ends Austin Hooper and Geoff Swaim both hitting the open market this offseason and a need to add weapons around Treylon Burks and Robert Woods, this is a no brainer selection.

21. Bengals (CB, Joey Porter Jr)

Joey Porter Jr lands on a team that his father considered a rival during his four time pro bowl career. With Chidobe Awuzie’s ACL injury and the inconsistent play of Eli Apple, it’s obvious that the Bengals need to address the Cornerback position. Porter is still pretty raw, but offers an exciting length and physical frame at the position.

22. Buccaneers (EDGE, Lukas Van Ness)

Tampa Bay is in need of more youthful talent when it comes to rushing the passer and Van Ness is currently an under the radar prospect that will become a first round fixture in mock drafts, in my opinion. He has the positional versatility to have success on the edge, but can also kick inside as well. Van Ness is a high ceiling prospect who’s also just scratching the surface on what he could become. He might be a more athletic version of George Karlaftis, a first round pick from last year’s draft.

23. Jets (RT, Paris Johnson)

Although Zach Wilson’s start to his career is similar statistically to Jamarcus Russell, I don’t think the Jets can afford to pull the plug on the experiment just yet. Actually, I think they need to do everything in their power to ensure he has success moving forward. The tackle position is still something the team needs to address, as injuries have amounted and the teams stop-gap replacements hasn’t exactly been stellar either. With experience playing on the right side of the ball in college, Johnson could easily be a day one Right Tackle for the Jets, with the potential to be the teams franchise Left Tackle as well.

24. Giants (WR, Jordan Addison)

With Kenny Golladay being a waste of money and the team trading away Kadarius Toney before the trade deadline, the Wide Receiver position has opened up as a need again for the Giants. Jordan Addison is a former Biletnikoff award winner who should take the top off of defenses, while Wandale Robinson runs the slot.

25. Broncos (49ers via Dolphins) (LB, Noah Sewell)

Denver needs help at the Linebacker position, and although Noah Sewell will likely drop in the draft due to positional value, he still will become a first round draft selection. The Oregon Duck is an explosive athlete for his size and projects to be a triple digit tackling, downhill thumper at the next level if he hits his absolute peak.

26. Ravens (WR, Rashee Rice)

Rashee Rice should be a Senior Bowl standout and play himself into being a first round draft pick in this years draft. He’s registered 83 receptions for 1,208 yards and nine touchdowns so far this season for the SMU Mustangs and lands on a Baltimore Ravens offense that’s in desperate need of a play maker on the outside.

27. Cowboys (RB, Bijan Robinson)

Hear me out for a second. With the Cowboys likely cutting bait with Ezekiel Elliot and his contract this offseason and potentially having to let Tony Pollard walk this summer with the looming contracts of Trevon Diggs, Micah Parsons and Ceedee Lamb (not to mention, whatever the heck they’re going to do with Dalton Schultz) in the future, Dallas and Bijan Robinson sounds like a perfect marriage. Dallas would receive a generational talent at the position and would be much more cost effective than Zeke and say a franchise tagged Tony Pollard next season.

28. Vikings (CB, Emmanuel Forbes)

With the team potentially letting Patrick Peterson walk after this season, the Vikings need to address their Cornerback position. Mississippi State’s Emmanuel Forbes has long levers for arms, plays with an absurd amount of alpha CB1 confidence and is leading the country in interceptions. If he can run a quick 40 yard dash time, you’ll see him in the first round.

29. Bills (S, Antonio Johnson)

With Jordan Poyer being a free agent this offseason, Antonio Johnson is an exciting athlete that could replace him moving forward.

30. Eagles (CB, Christian Gonzalez)

With James Bradberry also slated to be available in the open market and Darius Slay not getting any younger, Philadelphia could use their second first round selection on a Corner. Like Kelee Ringo and Joey Porter Jr, Christian Gonzalez Is a physically imposing corner that could skyrocket up draft boards by the time my final mock draft rolls around.

31. Chiefs (EDGE, Jared Verse)

Kansas City needs help all along their defensive line, from a more reliable running mate alongside Chris Jones on the inside, to improved depth on the outside, considering Frank Clark’s play this season. Jared Verse and his twitchy explosiveness pairs well with last year’s first round pick, George Karlaftis and his power.