“Here we gooooo” again: The Dak Prescott dilemma

The Dallas Cowboys have a Dak Prescott sized problem. What do they do with him this offseason? I break down all the options below.

The year is 2016. Your reliable 2003 Toyota Corolla finally kicked the bucket, so you invest in a brand new model. Things started out promising, but you’ve quickly realized that you’ve had to put a lot of money into your vehicle and it’s not exactly the most reliable daily driver for what you’ve put into it. From the repeating alternator failures, to a water pump replacement. Heck, you just recently put a new set of tires on it and got a new alignment not too long ago as well. I think you’re catching on to where I’m headed. The 2016 Corolla used in this analogy that’s getting too expensive for what it’s worth, is Dak Prescott.

In 2021, after two years of negotiations and a franchise tag, the Cowboys signed Prescott to a four year, 160 million dollar contract extension. Now, with Prescott’s salary cap hit hitting a RECORD BREAKING 60 million next season, the organization is faced with a tough decision. If an extension doesn’t get done before the start of the 2024 season, Prescott’s camp could refuse to negotiate in-season, meaning he could become an unrestricted free agent in March of 2025.

With star studded players like Ceedee Lamb and Micah Parsons waiting in line to get paid as well, Dallas would be wise to extend Prescott before kickoff next year to get flexibility on these new contracts.

Or should they? With their disappointing Wild Card loss to the Packers as home favorites, Prescott’s playoff record drops to 2-5, tied for the worst in NFL history behind Alex Smith and Billy Kilmer.

The Cowboys have now made THIRTEEN consecutive playoff appearances without a championship game appearance. They are the first team in NFL history with three straight 12 win seasons without a conference championship game.

In fact, since 1996, the Cowboys are amongst the Browns, Commanders, Dolphins, Lions and Texans as the only teams to be without a conference title. Not exactly the group of teams you want to be associated with.

What can the Cowboys do with Dak Prescott?

Does Dallas REALLY want to pay 50 million plus a year for a Quarterback that has a lack luster playoff history? With the acquisition of Trey Lance (Former 3rd overall pick in 2021) for a 4th round pick, Jerry Jones has a bargaining chip. It wouldn’t be pretty, but Jerry Jones and company could grit their teeth and not worry about an extension this offseason. It could work. Ceedee Lamb has a 5th year option on his rookie deal and Micah Parsons is a year behind him. The team could start anew at QB in 2026 if he were to walk, allowing them more cap space in the years beyond to sign or extend some key members on the team.

However, there’s still one more option, if Dak Prescott agreed to it. Although he has a no trade clause, Prescott wants to get paid. If Dallas is unwilling to do it, would another team be willing to trade for a top ten Quarterback? Would Dak waive his no trade clause to land an extension with a team that would be willing to pay him? Having already been on the receiving end of a career altering injury, he and his camp will know the importance of locking down a long term deal while the opportunity to do so is still there. Risking playing a full season without a long term deal is risky business.

What’s the benefit of Giving Trey Lance a chance?

You might be asking yourself: “Why would Dallas trade a top ten Quarterback? Those things don’t grow on trees.” You would be correct, but I just don’t see the value in paying Prescott 50 million a year.

Sure, the extension will allow you to potentially be able to pay Ceedee Lamb and Micah Parsons down the road, but backloading every big contract you negotiate will eventually catch up to you and isn’t exactly sustainable.

As previously mentioned, Lance was the former third overall pick in the draft, so it’s evident he has the potential to be a very good Quarterback. If given the opportunity, he could succeed in Dallas and would still save the organization money, considering his extension would be a much more team friendly deal due to his lack of experience.

Additionally, if he fails, is Dallas in any different position at the end of the season, besides having a higher draft pick for their rebuild?

It’s either the Cowboys continue success with Lance and save money, or they get out of mediocrity and jumpstart their “rebuild” while also saving money. A can’t lose situation in my opinion.

Trade talk:

I’m looking at two possible landing spots that A: Has the salary cap space to extend Dak, B: Has a need at QB & C: In markets Dak could potentially be willing to land in.

New England and Las Vegas.

With the 4th most cap space in 2024 and currently the clearest books in 2025, the Patriots have had inconsistent QB play since the departure of Tom Brady. Would the organization rather take the gamble of the development of a young Quarterback like they did with Mac Jones? Or would they look to potentially land a more stable option in Prescott if he were to become available? An organization that’s used to winning, I can easily see them being a team that’s wanting to compete now, and they have the money to do so.

For Las Vegas, things will be a little tougher, but they do have the 10th most cap space in 2024 and have proven they’re willing to spend the money needed to compete. With a draft pick that wouldn’t exactly land them a blue chip QB prospect, Las Vegas could simply trade their 13th overall pick (I don’t see New England parting with pick three overall for Prescott) to Dallas plus other assets to guarantee they get a QB to help them compete next season. What would those “assets” be? Let’s break down what a deal to land Prescott for each team would look like below.

Las Vegas:

Las Vegas sends: Pick 13 overall, 44 overall (2nd), their 2025 2nd round selection and this year’s 113th overall (4th round) selection.

Dallas sends: Dak Prescott (extended by Las Vegas), pick 24 overall, and their third round pick in next year’s (2025) draft.

Here’s what the Cowboys draft could start like this year if that deal were to go down:

Picks in Bold were acquired from the Raiders

1(13): Tyler Guyton, OT

2(44): Xavier Worthy, WR

2(56): Adisa Isaac, EDGE

3(87): Bucky Irving, RB

4(113): Maason Smith, DT

Here’s what a trade with the Patriots could look like:

New England sends: Matthew Judon, Christian Barmore, Kayshon Boutte, pick 34 (2nd), and their 2025 2nd & 3rd round selections.

Dallas sends: Dak Prescott and Michael Gallup.

Here’s what the Cowboys draft could start like this year if that deal were to go down:

Picks in Bold were acquired from the Patriots

1(24): Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL

2(34): Edgerin Cooper, LB

2(56): Patrick Paul, OT

3(87): Josh Newton, CB

5(173): Brenden Rice, WR

Wrapping things up:

Although the likelihood of this happening is slim to none, I believe it would be in the Cowboys best interest to explore trading Dak Prescott and seeing what exactly they have in Trey Lance.

The money saved in the Prescott deal could go towards other players around Lance moving forward, who will be on a cheaper contract. If he fails, Dallas has just jumpstarted their rebuild.

What do you guys think?