March Madness: Trenton’s deep dive into predicting a champion

The 1st round of March Madness starts on Thursday, March 20th and MILLIONS of people will fill out a bracket with hopes of being perfect. That starts with accurately predicting the champion.

People get caught up in accurately predicting the upsets, but a MAJOR factor in winning your buddies bracket pool is as simple as predicting the champion. In this article, I’m going to use some historical trends that should allow you to narrow that down.

Since the COVID year, there’s been four national champions. Baylor (21), Kansas (22) and UCONN back to back (23 & 24).

Let’s break down some key statistical categories for each championship team below.

Baylor (‘21):

Points per game (PPG): 82.9

Opponents PPG: 65.5

Field goal percentage: .486%

Three point percentage: .413%

Rebounds per game (RPG): 36.0

Turnovers per game (TOV): 11.5

Kansas (‘22):

PPG: 78.2

OPP: 67.3

FG%: .478%

3PT%: .361%

RPG: 37.9

TOV: 12.1

UCONN (‘23):

PPG: 78.6

OPP: 64.1

FG%: .464%

3PT%: .363%

RPG: 39.3

TOV: 12.9

UCONN (‘24):

PPG: 81.4

OPP: 63.4

FG%: .497%

3PT%: .358%

RPG: 38.8

TOV: 9.6

Overall, the post Covid era college basketball champion teams has to AT-LEAST reach these thresholds:

PPG: 78.2

OPP: 67.3

FG%: .464%

3PT%: .358%

RPG: 36.0

TOV: 12.9

The average of these four championship teams?

80.3 points per game (65.1 Opponent), 48.1 percent from the field (37.4% from 3), 38 rebounds a game, while only turning the ball over 11.5 times a contest.

Your national champion is..

Duke:

A late season injury to Cooper Flagg is something to monitor, but these are the Blue Devils statistic thresholds this year, achieving every major category.

PPG: 83.0 (78.2)

OPP: 61.9 (67.3)

FG%: .489% (.464%)

3PT: .377% (.368%)

RPG: 38.7 (36.0)

TOV: 9.6 (12.9)

In fact, Duke is the ONLY team I found nationally that checks off all six categories (but please, let me know if I missed a school somewhere).

The Auburn Tigers checks off five out of the six boxes, but has allowed 69.6 points per game this season, more than the maximum allowed from the past four national champions.

Although the Houston Cougars allow a collegiate best 58.3 points per game, they can’t put the ball in the basket as well as past champions, averaging 74.3 points a contest on .459% shooting. Their statistical goal for this theory of mine is 78.2 points a game, with a .464 percent shooting clip.

The former first ranked Tennessee Volunteers are in the same boat as Houston, with scoring numbers (74.8 PPG, .456FG, .343 3PT%) below championship level standards.

Florida is red hot, but doesn’t shoot at high enough of a clip from three (.353%) and is a little more leaky defensively than needed, giving up 68.6 points per contest.

The well coached Gonzaga Bulldogs don’t hit the threshold goal from a three point shooting or defense aspect.

Even dominant small school teams like UC San Diego or McNeese State failed to accomplish the clean sweep of the six statistical categories, even against weaker competition.

At the end of the day, numbers never lie. Pencil in the Blue Devils to win it all in your path to a perfect bracket.